Recession

Investing successfully during a recession is tough. However, you can protect and grow your portfolio with various diversification strategies.

Within the US, the site focuses on helping traders select a CFTC-regulated broker based on spreads and trading software features. Your best bet is to look at what’s worked in the past, then adapt these picks to your investment strategy and the current economic climate. You can check adviser records with the It’s also worth using a mixture of commodities, because you don’t want to be overexposed to a single market. During a recession, it’s worth grabbing any low-hanging fruit that you can. So don’t expect things to go exactly the same as in other years. This doesn’t mean you should expect the next recession to last this exact length of time, but it’s a useful guide. But, if you use this time to diversify and look into investment opportunities that other people are overlooking, it can boost your chances of making long-term gains. And it’s often best to invest before we hit a full-blown recession and prices rise (because everyone else has the same idea!). Diversifying with extra dollars in your back pocket means less chance you’d need to sell investments at a potential loss. This way, if there is little or no growth, investments can still generate a return that you can reinvest or spend. As the new year gets into full swing, the possibility of an upcoming recession still looms large and may feel like a big gray cloud hanging over your finances.

Preliminary Eurostat data released Tuesday showed the euro zone grew 0.1% in the fourth quarter. Economists had pointed to a 0.1% contraction over the same ...

Preliminary Eurostat data released Tuesday showed that the euro zone grew 0.1% in the fourth quarter. "Taking today's data at face value means the euro zone likely avoided entering a technical recession this quarter, just. Rome and Berlin had some of the strongest links to Russian gas. However, Germany surprised to the downside at a country breakdown level. Last year, economists warned that the 20-member region could be about to enter an economic recession. - Energy prices cooled off in the latter part of 2022, bringing some relief to the euro zone's broader economic performance.

The eurozone economy showed greater resilience than expected after avoiding a recession in the fourth quarter of 2022, official data showed Tuesday, ...

The euro zone eked out growth in the final three months of 2022, managing to avoid a recession even as sky-high energy costs, waning confidence and rising ...

Compared to a year earlier, growth was 1.9%, just beating expectations of 1.8%. Register for free to Reuters and know the full story "We continue to expect the euro area economy to contract slightly in the first half of the year, and the recovery expected in the second half is likely to be weak." [brake on bank lending](/markets/rates-bonds/euro-zone-lending-growth-tumbles-higher-rates-bite-2023-01-27/), a key source of credit for businesses, and access to loans has already suffered the [biggest drop](/business/finance/euro-zone-banks-tighten-credit-by-most-since-debt-crisis-ecb-says-2023-01-31/) last quarter since the bloc's 2011 debt crisis. Among the biggest euro zone countries, Germany and Italy recorded negative growth rates for the quarter but France and Spain expanded, Eurostat added, based on a flash estimate that is subject to revisions. FRANKFURT, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The euro zone eked out growth in the final three months of 2022, managing to avoid a recession even as sky-high energy costs, waning confidence and rising interest rates took a toll on the economy that is likely to persist into this year.

The International Monetary Fund said on Monday that Germany, Europe's biggest economy, and Italy would avoid recessions this year, as European growth proved " ...

But France dodged a contraction after recording growth of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter as the eurozone's second biggest economy expanded by 2.6 percent in 2022. The economy of the 27-nation EU as a whole, including the countries using the euro, grew by 3.6 percent in 2022. The figure is lower than the 0.3 percent growth recorded in the third quarter of 2022, but better than forecasts of a contraction by economists. Italy's economy also retreated in the final quarter of 2022, decreasing by 0.1 percent, official data showed on Tuesday. The eurozone economy will avoid a recession this winter after recording weak-but-positive growth of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, official data showed Tuesday. Official data in Germany, however, showed that Europe's biggest economy unexpectedly shrank in late 2022, contracting by 0.2 percent in the October to December period compared to the previous quarter.

The euro area is on course to avoid a recession after unexpectedly growing at the end of 2022, despite double-digit inflation and Russia's invasion of ...

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated GDP to remain unchanged. Le Maire spoke as French labor unions lead a second day of mass strikes and protests against raising the retirement age. “The resilience of our entrepreneurs and workers is exceptional.” The positive outcome for the fourth quarter means a technical recession may be averted, but we still expect the economy to contract in 1Q23.” Gross domestic product fell 0.7% from the prior three months, with a drop in private consumption outweighing boosts to investments and exports. That means year-on-year measures are now likely to slow more gradually than in other countries. The jobless rate held at 5.5%. “Another strong performance from the Irish economy may have done just enough to prevent the euro area from contracting in 4Q — it’s a close call,” said Jamie Rush, chief European economist at Bloomberg Economics. The outcome matched the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Officials deem inflation a bigger threat to the continent than what they see as a mild economic slowdown. The growth highlights the euro zone’s resilience after overcoming risks of fuel shortages. Article content

There's never been an aggressive fight against inflation that hasn't been accompanied by a rapid economic slowdown, as in the 1980s.

“We still expect the lagged impact of the surge in interest rates to push the economy into a mild recession in the first half of this year.” In fact, the economy may now be in a sweet spot. “The mix of growth was discouraging, and the monthly data suggest the economy lost momentum as the fourth quarter went on,” Andrew Hunter, a senior U.S. "I just think that the inflation picture has become more and more challenging over the course of this year, without question," Powell said at his monthly news conference in November. For nearly a year, the central bank has leaned into an aggressive [campaign to raise interest rates to slow](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/how-raising-interest-rates-helps-fight-inflation-high-prices-recession-rcna33754) the rise of consumer prices. That's more than enough to overcome one technical definition that a recession equals two consecutive quarters of negative growth. "So the pullback is likely to be softer and more gradual than in the past. "A soft landing is a long shot by any probability — it's never really happened before," he said. "I think the characteristics of this recession are likely to be different than prior ones," said Gregory Daco, the chief economist at Ernst and Young's EY-Parthenon consulting group. The news of a slowdown is, at least so far, being met with some relief among some observers. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits fell to a nine-month low of 186,000. The unemployment rate remains at 3.5%, the lowest in a half-century.

The euro area is on course to avoid a recession after unexpectedly growing at the end of 2022, despite double-digit inflation and Russia's invasion of ...

The euro area is on course to avoid a recession after unexpectedly growing at the end of 2022, despite double-digit inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Gross domestic product edged up by 0.1% in the final quarter, Eurostat said Tuesday, defying economist estimates for a contraction of 0.1%. While German and Italian output shrank, France and Spain recorded expansion.

The eurozone economy will avoid a recession this winter after recording weak-but-positive growth of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, official data ...

But France dodged a contraction after recording growth of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter as the eurozone's second biggest economy expanded by 2.6 percent in 2022. The figure is lower than the 0.3 percent growth recorded in the third quarter of 2022, but better than forecasts of a contraction by economists. The eurozone economy will avoid a recession this winter after recording weak-but-positive growth of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, official data showed Tuesday.

However, there is a whole field of economic forecasters who try to do this, and many predict that a recession is coming this year. In letters explaining recent ...

"Across the board, they are very, very, very poor at predicting booms and busts and when a recession is going to happen." "It's a vast simplification of the "We're looking for the unemployment rate to rise to roughly 5% by the end of this year," Bryson said.

It is not a secret that for a very long time widely respected economic models and indicators have been pointing towards an oncoming recession for the.

Gold price has reversed its direction and advanced to the $1,920 area in the American session on Monday. GBP/USD has managed to erase a portion of its daily losses after having tested 1.2300 in the European session. This undesirable balance is inevitable when the current inflation is high and the FED has convinced the markets (and households as well) that inflation will come down. EUR/USD has gained traction and recovered above 1.0850 after having declined toward 1.0800 earlier in the day. As an analyst however, it befalls me to find out that the overly optimistic case for a bull market has funded so many “buyers”, which hinges on the assumption that FED will be done soon and starts scaling back before a hard recession arrives. Rather, the safer bet is to expect a quick and hard recession that will normalize both the FED policy, the yield curve, price levels, and of course the market prices for risk assets which desperately need a wake-up call to reality. The quickest way to reach this equilibrium is to experience a harsh but (hopefully) quick recession that brings both annual inflation prints and FED funds rate considerably. Many argue the FED will purposefully “tip” the economy that still expands in high single digits in “nominal” dollars into the recession that is all but inevitable. [indicators](https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/indicators) have been pointing towards an oncoming recession for the US sometime within the next several quarters. [PMI](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/united-states) numbers was mostly better than consensus expectations. Hence macro-wise, everywhere you look at is screaming recession and some form of a hard landing. The quick come-quick-gone recession of 2020 was also estimated beforehand with a significantly lower chance from the same model.

There are steps you can take to protect yourself in the event of an economic downturn. Cut back your spending if you can, and reassess your staffing needs to ...

And these moves could put you in a better position to get through a period of upheaval. So a better bet may be to keep your spending on big things like commercial space and transportation at its current level while you see how things play out, then reevaluate. To that end, take a look at your various expenses and see if there are any extras you can trim. We don’t know what the next number of months have in store for the U.S. And if you own a small operation, you may be worried about an economic downturn and how it might impact your bottom line. You might, for example, have a full-time marketing manager on staff. If your seasonal workers impressed you, you may be inclined to keep them around. Maybe you brought extra staff on board to manage the holiday rush. Financial experts have been warning for months that we could be headed for a period of economic decline. That could cause a big decline in consumer spending. 31, 2023 [It’s how we make money.](/the-ascent/our-advertisers/)But our [editorial integrity](/the-ascent/editorial-integrity/)ensures our experts’ opinions aren’t influenced by compensation. [Maurie Backman](/the-ascent/authors/profile/maurie-backman/)

Such leaves investors in a predicament of avoiding a further drawdown in the equity markets but not wanting to miss out on a potential recovery. History is ...

“As a contrarian investor, excesses get built when everyone is on the same side of the trade. My thoughts are not generally mainstream and are often contrarian in nature but I try an use a common sense approach, clear explanations and my “real world” experience in the process. Such is known as the “golden cross” and historically signifies a more bullish setup for markets moving forward. There are plenty of reasons to be very concerned about the market over the next few months. Such is because the market anticipates outcomes and was the subject of this week’s post on The break above that downtrend line suggests that a pathway higher for prices is now occurring. A solid break above the downtrend line (with a successful retest) would confirm the completion of that pattern. That compression acts as a “spring,” and when prices break out, the subsequent move tends to be pretty powerful. The Leading Economic Index is a significant indicator. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index (CEI) has not weakened in the same fashion as the LEI because labor market-related indicators (employment and personal income) remain robust. “Stocks will be unable to post a durable rally and exit their bear market until the cycle turns. Despite mounting evidence supporting recession forecasts, the stock market remains at odds with that outlook.

The eurozone economy eked out 0.1% growth in the fourth quarter of 2022, beating economists' expectations of a 0.1% decline.

Eking out a quarter of economic expansion, fourth-quarter GDP beat expectations of a 0.1% decline among economists surveyed by FactSet and built on growth in each prior quarter of 2022. Gross domestic product (GDP) in the eurozone—the majority of members in the European Union using the euro—grew at 0.1% on a quarterly basis in the final three months of 2022. The eurozone economy was on track to avoid recession after the fourth quarter of 2022, but expectations of higher interest rates from the European Central Bank in the months to come still pose a risk to growth in Europe.

Industrial companies like Caterpillar, UPS and Dover appear to be moving full steam ahead on investments even with chatter about a downturn.

While sales will still grow this year, that will mostly be a reflection of price increases, the company said Tuesday when it reported fourth-quarter results. Caterpillar is targeting $1.5 billion in capital expenditures this year, an increase from both 2022 and its pre-pandemic 2019 budget of $1.1 billion for the machinery, energy and transportation businesses. There’s no glut, though: Improving supply conditions allowed Caterpillar to push out more shipments to a still-constrained North American construction industry, while more than 70% of the combined year-end inventories for Caterpillar’s mining, energy and transportation businesses are linked to customer orders, executives said.

The eurozone economy showed greater resilience than expected after avoiding a recession in the fourth quarter of 2022, official data showed Tuesday, ...

International, MNA | The eurozone economy will avoid a recession this winter after recording weak-but-positive growth of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter ...

But France dodged a contraction after recording growth of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter as the eurozone’s second biggest economy expanded by 2.6 percent in 2022. Italy’s economy also retreated in the final quarter of 2022, decreasing by 0.1 percent, official data showed on Tuesday. The eurozone economy will avoid a recession this winter after recording weak-but-positive growth of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, official data showed Tuesday.

Industrial companies like Caterpillar, UPS and Dover appear to be moving full steam ahead on investments even with chatter about a downturn.

Tobin of Dover cautioned that the first quarter would be comparatively slow as industrial customers take a more circumspect view of purchases. The parcel-delivery company is planning for a mild recession in the US during the first half of this year, but it’s still planning to spend $5.3 billion on capital expenditures in 2023, up from $4.8 billion last year. “But we are in the camp that believes,” Tobin said, that the Federal Reserve “has gone far enough.” Additional interest rate increases “can be problematic to economic growth.” Orders dropped about 17% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, excluding the impact of currency swings and acquisitions, partly because the backlog is so robust and customers need only so many products. Pentair Plc benefited from a surge in demand for pool products as consumers ramped up spending on their homes during the pandemic; it’s now seeing the other side of that as purchases wind down from unsustainable levels. This year is unlikely to be a gangbusters one for manufacturers as customers sort through the ramifications of higher interest rates, inflation dynamics and a normalizing supply chain.

Meanwhile, the coincident economic index (CEI) has not weakened in the same fashion as the LEI because labor market-related indicators (employment and personal ...

“As a contrarian investor, excesses get built when everyone is on the same side of the trade. Follow Lance on [Linked-In](https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/) and [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXVMMgEidXlrTM1coedg70A) [Customer Relationship Summary (Form CRS)](https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Clarity-Financial-Form-CRS_20200630-Final-V2.pdf) Crucially, a recession, or “hard landing,” followed the last five instances when inflation peaked above 5%. Such is known as the “golden cross” and historically signifies a more bullish setup for markets moving forward. There are plenty of reasons to be very concerned about the market over the next few months. A solid break above the downtrend line (with a successful retest) would confirm the completion of that pattern. The break above that downtrend line suggests that a pathway higher for prices is now occurring. Such is because the market anticipates outcomes and was the subject of this week’s post on The Leading Economic Index is a significant indicator. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index (CEI) has not weakened in the same fashion as the LEI because labor market-related indicators (employment and personal income) remain robust. Based on the historical data, stocks have another 15% or so downside if the US has a recession.” “Stocks will be unable to post a durable rally and exit their bear market until the cycle turns.

Signs of a forthcoming recession seem to be everywhere: from grocery stores, where food prices are soaring, to Fortune 500 companies, where workers are ...

It was edited by Uri Berliner and William Troop. This episode was produced by Connor Donevan. [Arezou Rezvani](https://www.npr.org/people/360134258/arezou-rezvani) shares advice from economists and personal finance experts on how to prepare for a potential recession.

The eurozone economy eked out 0.1% growth in the fourth quarter of 2022, beating economists' expectations of a 0.1% decline.

While energy prices have fallen amid a mild winter and buildup of gas supplies—helping growth prospects—Europe is not yet out of the woods. Eking out a quarter of economic expansion, fourth-quarter GDP beat expectations of a 0.1% decline among economists surveyed by FactSet and built on growth in each prior quarter of 2022. In 2022 there were soaring energy prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a dramatic rise in borrowing costs as the European Central Bank (ECB), like the Federal Reserve, ratcheted up interest rates in a bid to tame red-hot inflation. Traders are also positioning for more hawkishness from the central bank this week, including signs that financial conditions will continue to tighten in 2023. Eking out a quarter of economic expansion, fourth-quarter GDP beat expectations of a 0.1% decline among economists surveyed by FactSet... The eurozone economy was on track to avoid recession after the fourth quarter of 2022, but expectations of higher interest rates from the European Central Bank in the months to come still pose a risk to growth in Europe.

A recession looked all but inevitable last year as inflation hit a 40-year high, consumer spending tapered, interest rates surged, and Wall Street had its ...

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Recessions are more than just a slowing economy, volatile stock market and a bad spell of data. Behind the numbers and jargon are real people — and real ...

The euro zone eked out growth in the final three months of 2022, avoiding a recession even as sky-high energy costs, waning confidence and rising interest ...

Compared to a year earlier, growth was 1.9%, above expectations of 1.8%. Such a rapid increase is putting a brake on bank lending, a key source of credit for businesses, and access to loans has already suffered the biggest drop last quarter since the bloc’s 2011 debt crisis. Among the bloc’s biggest countries, Germany and Italy recorded negative growth rates for the quarter but France and Spain expanded, Eurostat added, based on a flash estimate that is subject to revisions.

Market Overview Analysis by Lance Roberts covering: . Read Lance Roberts's latest article on Investing.com.

“As a contrarian investor, excesses get built when everyone is on the same side of the trade. This is because the market anticipates outcomes and was the subject of this week’s post on “ There are plenty of reasons to be very concerned about the market over the next few months. This is known as the “golden cross” and historically signifies a more bullish setup for markets moving forward. Since the October lows, the market has been building a rather substantial price base. As you will note, since January’s market peak, each attempt to break above the falling downtrend line was a head fake, leading to lower prices. That compression acts as a “spring,” and when prices break out, the subsequent move tends to be pretty powerful. The Leading Economic Index is a significant indicator. This leaves investors in a predicament of avoiding a further drawdown in the equity markets but not wanting to miss out on a potential recovery. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index (CEI) has not weakened in the same fashion as the LEI because labor market-related indicators (employment and personal income) remain robust. “Stocks will be unable to post a durable rally and exit their bear market until the cycle turns. Based on the historical data, stocks have another 15% or so downside if the US has a recession.”

With economic activity is expected to slow in 2023 and the likelihood the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten monetary policy, the probability of.

Headquartered in the United States, the company does business in over 100 countries with regional offices in London, Amsterdam, Dubai, Hong Kong, Singapore and Mexico City. The process of bringing inflation in line with the Fed’s target will likely take longer than initially anticipated and remain elevated in 2023 and perhaps beyond. AM Best is a global credit rating agency, news publisher and data analytics provider specializing in the insurance industry. “Even if economists don’t believe the United States will enter into a recession in 2023, many believe economic growth will slow,” said Ann Modica, director, credit rating criteria, research and analytics, AM Best. Overall, according to the report, economic activity in the United States was remarkably resilient in 2022 despite a slow start, with GDP up by 3.2% in the third quarter and by 2.9% in the fourth quarter. However, most forecasters have cut their 2023 GDP projections given the ongoing impacts of tighter financial conditions, owing to the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle, persistent higher prices, the potential for weaker corporate earnings and higher borrowing rates. economy falling into a recession over the next 12 months is rising, according to a new AM Best report. The report also notes that although inflation has declined from its mid-2022 peak, it remains well above pre-pandemic trends and the Fed’s target of 2.0%. With its Best’s Special Report, “US Economy: Recession on the Horizon for 2023?” AM Best explores how key economic drivers performed in 2022, such as consumer spending and labor and housing market trends, with expectations for 2023. In 2023, the markets likely will continue to experience heightened volatility, particularly during the first half. stock indices, NASDAQ was the biggest loser, with its value down by almost 34% from the beginning of 2022. Geopolitical tensions, China’s unwinding of its zero COVID-19 policy and its impacts on supply chains and global growth, as well as a slowdown in global economic activity, also could impact U.S.

The economies of Central, Eastern, and Southeast Europe (CESEE) are showing resilience despite the conflict in Ukraine that caused a significant ...

This reduction in oil prices significantly lowers tax revenues, with 40% of the revenue coming from the energy sector where export duties on oil play a major role. The price of Urals, Russia's most important crude oil grade, dropped to USD 47 per barrel in the first four weeks after the measures took effect, representing a discount of 43% compared to North Sea Brent. Ukraine’s economy is expected to recover slightly and grow by a modest 3% after the 30% contraction in 2022. The institute forecasts average growth of 1% for the EU member states in the region. But the biggest factor of uncertainty remains the war in Ukraine,” said Grieveson, according to a press release from wiiw on January 30. As a result, Ukraine's financing needs are expected to increase, with a projected budget deficit of 20% of GDP, said wiiw.

The economies of Central, Eastern, and Southeast Europe (CESEE) are showing resilience despite the conflict in Ukraine that caused a significant ...

This reduction in oil prices significantly lowers tax revenues, with 40% of the revenue coming from the energy sector where export duties on oil play a major role. The price of Urals, Russia's most important crude oil grade, dropped to USD 47 per barrel in the first four weeks after the measures took effect, representing a discount of 43% compared to North Sea Brent. Ukraine’s economy is expected to recover slightly and grow by a modest 3% after the 30% contraction in 2022. The institute forecasts average growth of 1% for the EU member states in the region. But the biggest factor of uncertainty remains the war in Ukraine,” said Grieveson, according to a press release from wiiw on January 30. As a result, Ukraine's financing needs are expected to increase, with a projected budget deficit of 20% of GDP, said wiiw.

Inflation appears to have peaked, led by improvements in core goods prices and rate-sensitive sectors like housing.

Here’s How It Went](/commentaries/2023/01/28/i-asked-chatgpt-to-write-about-airline-deregulation-in-the-u-s-heres-how-it-went) [Frank Holmes](/search?author=Frank%20Holmes)of [U.S. by [Read more commentaries by BlackRock ](/search?firm=BlackRock) At the same time, macroeconomic uncertainty remains high, and we expect Using alternative data to cut through the noise of hard vs. How are these insights shaping our positioning across the global equity landscape? This can be supported by two opposing viewpoints: 1) the hard landing scenario which expects policymakers to overtighten and engineer a recession, or 2) a scenario where inflation swiftly returns to the 2% target and the Fed is able to begin easing financial conditions. hard landing depends on how healthy the economy remains as inflation continues to normalize and how policymakers react to ongoing developments. Shown in Figure 3, the growth rate of new online rental listings in the US has started to decline. As observed in the inflation GPS measure, the sentiment of corporate comments around cost pressures and the effects of inflation on margins hasn’t showed signs of deteriorating as the outlook improves. The subsequent policy response saw the US Federal Reserve (“Fed”) deliver 4.25% of rate hikes across only seven meetings. The Fed remains committed to doing “whatever it takes” to bring inflation to the targeted level.