Economic

2022 - 6 - 13

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Mexico Takes Aim at Private Companies, Threatening Decades of ... (The Wall Street Journal)

Populist president seeks to reclaim state control over oil-and-gas, electricity sectors; 'It's a closing off of Mexico'

You may cancel your subscription at anytime by calling Customer Service. We are delighted that you'd like to resume your subscription. But since January, half the gas-fired plant has been forcibly shut down by Mexico’s government, which argues that private energy companies have plundered Mexico like Spanish conquistadors of old.

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Economic thinking is at a crucial inflection point (Financial Times)

We'll send you a myFT Daily Digest email rounding up the latest Global Economy news every morning. Soaring energy prices have encouraged another form of ...

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Amid economic uncertainty, Hochul tells her Cabinet to moderate ... (WSKG.org)

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said she's told her Cabinet they might have to be careful about state spending next year, as inflation continues to rise and Wall ...

She said there are 15,000 positions in state government that are vacant and need to be filled. The comptroller warned that if New York doesn’t make a substantial payment soon, interest costs will mount. But Hochul said the cost of everything has gone up, and Wall Street — which provides 18% of the state’s total revenues — has gone down.

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As economic worry grows, Democrats face weary Vegas voters (The Washington Post)

“They suck. Midterms suck,” Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) said bluntly ahead of Tuesday's Nevada primary. Lack of motivation to vote also is common ...

Every seat in the House and a third of the seats in the 100-member Senate are up for election. Here’s a complete calendar of all the primaries in 2022. I think they just kind of don’t believe it, and they’re worried about what the future will hold,” she said. Voters are discouraged and fear the worst is still to come. “We’re hearing a lot about Roe on the doors, we’re hearing a lot about abortion on the doors. Clearly, where we stand is with the voters, the majority that support legal access, and now we’re asking about whether kids are safe in school,” said West, the former county chairwoman who has been leading canvasses ahead of the primary. Acknowledging the burden of inflation, Democrats argue that they are still the party with the policies to lower the prices that the government can control. Zoila Sanchez, who organizes the Hispanics in Politics event, has sensed that those who are open to the GOP have recoiled after being reminded how the Republican Party often responds after a mass shooting. Romano, who is an independent but planning to vote Republican this year, said that although he believes Donald Trump as president was “too brusque” and “caused damage,” people will remember how the economy thrived under his administration. Republican members and strategists have spent the past year countering that the Democratic-passed recovery bill is a contributor to inflation. “I do believe there’s a level of exhaustion and uncertainty about the future, and that, to me, is what you’re seeing a lot of in Biden’s approval ratings,” said Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.), whose district stretches from western Vegas to the southern tip of the state. “One of the things I think we have to get better at between now and the general election is talking about what we’ve done,” said Donna West, a former Clark County, Nev., Democratic chairwoman.

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UK economy's stagnation increases chances of recession (The Guardian)

Analysis: Fall in GDP in April also increases probability of 0.25-point increase in interest rates this week.

On past form, the extra day’s holiday to mark the Queen’s platinum jubilee will alone reduce growth in the second quarter by 0.4 percentage points. Even this modest forecast now looks a stretch, since it would take growth of 0.4-0.5% in May and June to be achieved. May’s growth figures will reflect the tax hike and the impact of rising petrol prices, he predicts. The weakness of GDP makes it more likely it will opt for a 0.25-point increase rather than the more aggressive 0.5-point jump some in the City had been expecting. Stagflation has two elements to it: weak growth and rapidly rising prices. Yet even taking into account reduced health output the economy would still have expanded only by 0.1% in April after a 0.1% decline in March. That’s stagnation by any measure.

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Fears for UK economy grow as higher prices bite (BBC News)

The economy contracted by 0.3% in April after it shrank by 0.1% in March, official figures show.

The risk of a UK-EU trade war is now material, which could push up inflation more and risk investment. Current forecasts suggest this should not be the start of a technical recession, especially given the support to household incomes from the energy package last month, but that risk certainly hangs over the economy. While May should break that pattern, the chances are that the economy is contracting over this quarter. It said many firms reported how the soaring costs of petrol and diesel meant they had to pay more for materials or "had to raise the price of the products they sold". Only in January has the UK economy grown this year. However, by that logic, a number of previous GDP figures were also flattered by such figures.

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UK economy unexpectedly shrinks as prices surge (Financial Times)

We'll send you a myFT Daily Digest email rounding up the latest UK GDP news every morning. The UK economy shrank in April, missing forecasts and confirming the ...

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UK economy shrinks 0.3% in April, raising slowdown concerns (CNBC)

Britain's economy unexpectedly shrank by a monthly 0.3% in April, adding to fears of a slowdown.

The retail sector also grew by 1.4%. Over the three months to April, GDP was up by 0.2%, weaker than the Reuters poll forecast of 0.4% and slowing sharply from growth of 0.8% in the three months to March. Growth was likely to rebound in the third quarter so the chances of a second successive quarterly decline in GDP – the traditional definition of a technical recession – looked low. Economists polled by Reuters had on average expected GDP to grow by 0.1% in April from March. Britain's economy unexpectedly shrank in April, official figures showed on Monday, adding to fears of a sharp slowdown just three days before the Bank of England announces the scale of its latest interest rate response to the surge in inflation. - Economists polled by Reuters had on average expected gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 0.1% in April from March.

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UK Economy Shrinks Unexpectedly (Bloomberg)

The UK economy shrank in April at the sharpest pace in more than a year as the government wound down Covid testing, highlighting risks that a broader ...

Gross domestic product fell 0.3% from March when output declined 0.1%, the Office for National Statistics said Monday. A gain of 0.1% was predicted by economists.

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UK slowdown fears mount as GDP unexpectedly shrinks in April (Reuters)

Britain's economy unexpectedly shrank in April, official figures showed on Monday, adding to fears of a sharp slowdown just three days before the Bank of ...

The retail sector also grew by 1.4%. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Growth was likely to rebound in the third quarter so the chances of a second successive quarterly decline in GDP – the traditional definition of a technical recession – looked low. Over the three months to April, GDP was up by 0.2%, weaker than the Reuters poll forecast of 0.4% and slowing sharply from growth of 0.8% in the three months to March.

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Economic Concerns Continue (Forbes)

It's hard to imagine this isn't already affecting consumers, forcing spending choices to the forefront which may show up in 2Q earnings. Lumber prices, which ...

Looking ahead to this week, the biggest event is certainly the FOMC meeting. One area of strength continues to be the US dollar. The S&P 500 is now down 18% for the year while the Nasdaq if off 27%, putting it well into bear market territory.

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Unexpected economic reversal indicates UK is 'perilously close to a ... (City A.M.)

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the UK fell 0.3 per cent in April, marking the second month in a row the economy has shrank, according to figures published ...

“The impact of rising energy prices, particularly on manufacturing, is likely to impede recovery in the coming months. 10-year gilts added 0.03 points to hit 2.474 per cent, the highest level since 2014. Consumer spending accounts for around two thirds of economic output in the UK. The OECD last week said only Russia will register weaker growth than the UK in the G20 next year. The extra bank holiday in June will also dampen activity in the second quarter. The pound extended its losing streak against the dollar, weakening 0.85 per cent to buy $1.2209.

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Image courtesy of "The Washington Post"

Introducing “Econ 101: Navigating the Economy,” a new series from ... (The Washington Post)

The series underscores The Post's commitment to making critical, timely topics easy to navigate and empowering them to make more informed decisions, ...

Two pieces are available now: a comprehensible and digestible look at inflation and an exploration of what’s driving record-high gas prices. “The U.S. economy is experiencing shifts that many Americans have never experienced before. “Providing tools for readers to understand the evolving world around us and use that knowledge to make smart financial decisions is core to what we do at Morgan Stanley,” said Alice Milligan, Chief Marketing Officer at Morgan Stanley. “That’s why we’re so proud to collaborate with The Post to offer such content at no cost to readers so they can have the confidence to grow and achieve their financial goals, today and tomorrow.”

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In 'miracle' city Shenzhen, fears for China's economic future (Reuters)

David Fong made his way from a poor village in central China to the southern boomtown of Shenzhen as a young man in 1997. Over the next 25 years he worked ...

On top of that, Shenzhen was locked down for a week in March to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. "I've interned at companies where classmates a year or two older had found jobs, but it's much harder to land a position than it was for them," said Jade Yang, 22, who completed an advertising degree in May and moved 1,400 kilometres from central Chongqing to find work at a Shenzhen tech firm. One diplomat at a major European consulate told Reuters they estimated the number of its nationals in south China had fallen to 750 from 3,000 before the pandemic. The lush, subtropical city that fused manufacturing, technology, and finance into an entrepreneurial hotbed sometimes known as China's Silicon Valley, was a magnet for ambitious and talented graduates from across the country. China's plans for a Greater Bay Area - melding Shenzhen with Hong Kong, Macau and several mainland cities - appear to have stalled. If Shenzhen is in trouble, that is a warning sign for the world's second-largest economy. Fong, who sells his goods mostly to domestic customers, said sales are down about 40% from 20 million yuan ($3 million) in 2020, hurt by the recent two-month lockdown in Shanghai and a general decline in consumer confidence. Business registrations also fell by almost a third in that time. "I hope we make it through the year," said Fong, surrounded by talking bears, machine parts and his company's catalogues in his top-floor office overlooking gleaming towers in an area of Shenzhen once filled with sprawling factories. Over the next 25 years he worked for a succession of overseas manufacturers before building his own multi-million dollar business making everything from schoolbags to toothbrushes. As recently as October, forecasting firm Oxford Economics predicted that Shenzhen would be the world's fastest-growing city between 2020 and 2022. President Xi Jinping called it the 'miracle' city when he visited in 2019.

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Gov. Justice announces first three Economic Enhancement Grant ... (Governor Jim Justice)

Grants awarded by WV Water Development Authority less than two months after Governor calls Special Session to secure $250 million in program funding ...

The WDA has approved a $1.854 million grant to the City of Richwood in Nicholas County for its Hinkle Mountain/Little Laurel water extension project. The WDA has approved a $7.586 million grant to the City of Lewisburg in Greenbrier County to improve its water system. The water system is a regional water supplier in Greenbrier County and serves approximately 12,000 people in Lewisburg, Ronceverte, Renick, Frankford, Maxwelton, Fairlea, and Caldwell. In total, this is a $63.468 million project. “And, of course, I also want to thank the Legislature for their support of this important program time and time again.” “I thank the Legislature for their votes to create the program and to provide $250 million in funding for this incredibly important cause, but we couldn’t afford to stop there. “I want to thank the municipalities receiving this round of funds.

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There's no economic data on the US calendar to interrupt the ... (ForexLive)

The mood right now is deeply dark with S&P 500 futures down 2.1% and crypto down far more. Bitcoin is down 12% today and ethereum is down 26% since Saturday.

The mood right now is deeply dark with S&P 500 futures down 2.1% and crypto down far more. Bitcoin is down 12% today and ethereum is down 26% since Saturday. The market can continue to stew in Friday's CPI report all day long with no events or speeches on the US economic calendar.

China faces a lot of uncertainty about its economic growth (NPR)

NPR's Steve Inskeep speaks to Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know, about the economic potential of China, ...

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Analysis: Cannabis Retailers Drive Economic Growth, Are Not ... (Norml)

Licensed cannabis businesses stimulate economic growth and are not magnets for crime, according to an analysis commissioned by the city of Sacramento, ...

It makes no sense from either an economic perspective or from a public health perspective to prohibit these businesses or to relegate cannabis commerce solely to those operating in the unregulated marketplace.” Commenting on the study’s findings, NORML’s Deputy Director Paul Armentano said: “These findings ought to mitigate the concerns of local officials who have been reluctant to embrace regulating the cannabis marketplace. Authors also rebuffed the allegation that marijuana retailers were associated with any elevated risk of criminal activity.

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White House press secretary says Americans are 'well positioned' to ... (CNN)

The White House maintained on Monday that Americans are well equipped to deal with current economic hurdles -- including US stocks plunging into a bear ...

Nor is it with regard to food," Biden said at the White House. We get that, and we are incredibly focused on doing everything that we can to make sure that the economy is working for the American people. And a lot of that is thanks to the American Rescue Plan." But we are coming out of the strongest jobs market in American history, and that matters. "We know families are concerned about inflation and the stock market. At that point, the Fed would resume standard quarter-point hikes, he said.

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Biden economic adviser says White House hasn't 'missed much at ... (Fox News)

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles! Jared Bernstein, a member of President Biden's Council of Economic Advisers said Monday that he doesn't believe the ...

"To the extent that the White House missed this in terms of the inflation story, and I know you said that you've missed it before, we're not going to re-litigate that. The fact that we have a highly competent group here working to do this is extremely different than just trying to spin things and say who got right what at what time," Bernstein added. "So if you listen to the president’s three point plan on fighting inflation, he put number one as Fed independence for a reason. We have a team of seasoned people here led by a president who believes that we have to do everything," Bernstein said. "I don't think the White House missed much at all in the following sense. Inflation hit 8.6% in May, climbing to another 40-year high.

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'We get that': Jean-Pierre sighs while taking questions on Biden ... (Washington Examiner)

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre audibly sighed as she defended President Joe Biden's economic stewardship, saying he and his administration ...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has not yet entered a bear market, but it was down about 2.5% on Monday and 16.3% since the start of the year. That’s when Jean-Pierre defended Biden’s handling of the economy, crediting the nearly $2 trillion American Rescue Plan with recent growth and job creation. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, a top economic adviser to Democratic former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, had warned Biden about inflation and economic overheating. Economic stumbles have coincided with a decline in Biden’s popularity. If the economy falls into a recession, unemployment is unlikely to remain low. But GDP actually shrank in the first quarter of this year, and the Federal Reserve has begun hiking interest rates.

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White House touts 'robust' Arizona economy; critics call that half the ... (KTAR.com)

White House officials insisted this week that Arizona is sharing in the nation's “robust” economic recovery.

“So we’re paying for the cost of transportation and distribution on top of the production costs that have spiked.” “We’ll need to see more people participating in the labor market or people moving to the state. According to the White House, Arizona’s real gross domestic product was 6.2% higher in the fourth quarter of 2021 than the same period of 2020. “We’ve been able to create a lot of resilience in the U.S. economy over the past year or so.” Gas prices in Arizona hit the highest-recorded average price at $5.181 on Wednesday, according to AAA. The call with reporters by White House Council of Economic Advisers Heather Boushey and Jared Bernstein on Monday was part of an administration messaging effort to highlight gains in all 50 states.

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The Economic Meltdown Has Roots in Lockdown (Brownstone Institute)

American's capacity for denial is truly a thing to behold. For at least 27 months, it should have been obvious that we were headed for a grave crisis.

The most frustrating aspect of all of this is the rampant failure to connect cause and effect. The cause should be clear: this was all kicked off by the most egregious, arrogant, irresponsible, foolhardy, and brutal policies ever perpetrated on the whole of American life, all in the name of disease control. Once the economy opened up again, and people were ready to get out and spend their new riches, a strange new reality presented itself. Can you imagine that only last month, the Biden administration concocted the idea of establishing a “Disinformation Governance Board”? It was designed to script the truth to all social media and mainstream media outlets, censoring all dissent. Mush is exactly what they have created out of a once prosperous and hopeful nation. Adults who had spent a lifetime embracing the normal disutilities of labor gained for the first time a vision of a life of luxury without work. Put it all together, especially with declining financials, along with supply-chain breakages and other economic dislocations, and this is why it feels like the walls are closing in. Here is the wave of printing compared with current price trends. They say it and it somehow becomes true. This week already began with more of the same, for fear that the Fed will be forced to rein in its easy-money policy event further. It was not the same as last month. Even in the midst of very tight labor markets and very low unemployment (mostly mythical when you consider labor force participation), companies have started to lay off workers.

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Why economies crash (strategy+business)

A new book shows how systemic financial crises are as difficult to predict as they are to prevent.

Given how thoroughly Danielsson outlines the challenges of applying “Goldilocks” regulation to the financial industry—that is, regulation with just the right balance of risk acceptance and aversion—it is somewhat surprising how confident he is about our prospects of reducing the number of future collapses. We also tend to regulate to prevent a repeat of the previous crisis rather than look in an unbiased manner at points of future vulnerability. For the economy to grow, we need banks to accept the risk of lending, but we also need them to take the right amount of risk. The problem is that we don’t know what it is. To properly assess risk, we need to recognize that different investors care about different things, depending on their level of exposure and their time horizon. He argues that 1763 was different from what had come before, as it was caused “not by war or crop failure but rather by shadow banking and the extensive use of financial instruments allowing risk to hide and spread.” Over the subsequent 250 years, we have had many other similar crises.

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What economic policies prevented dire housing outcomes during ... (Brookings Institution)

Laurie Goodman (Urban Institute) and Paul Willen (Federal Reserve Bank, Boston) discuss how the policy response to COVID-19 helped prevent dire outcomes for ...

To discuss these questions and more on housing policy during COVID-19, host David Wessel is joined by Laurie S. Goodman, vice president of housing finance policy at the Urban Institute, and Paul Willen, senior economist and policy advisor for research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Senior Economist and Policy Advisor - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston What did the pandemic reveal about gaps in the rental assistance safety net?

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