Holger Rune

Matchup breakdowns for the ATP Lyon 250 semifinals, including Alex de Minaur vs Alex Molcan, and Cam Norrie vs Holger Rune.

Norrie is certainly the more reliable of the two players right now, but Rune has a lot of positive qualities and is regularly improving. Norrie is seeking his tenth finals appearance, and his third of the season, and should have a very calm head, and will likely look to push his young opponent into mistakes through solid counterpunching in a way that Zverev doesn’t do. Norrie is primarily a defensive player who is risk-averse and efficient, while the young Dane is high-energy and offensive. Heavy serves to that side could break it down, and weak returns should offer Rune the chance for a putaway. De Minaur has had a decent season, which includes improvement on clay and some decent wins recently, most notably against Cam Norrie in the quarterfinals of Barcelona. The same tournament saw him push Carlos Alcaraz to the brink, in three sets with two tiebreaks, a strong sign of his growing competence on clay. But the other side of the coin is the same, which is the retrieving skill of the mobile Molcan, past whom de Minaur may find it hard to hit. His season, however, does not quite match up to the glory of that stat. He will be pushed out wide from the ad court but will reset about as well as anyone, or sprint across the whole court to pick up a drop shot off a deep return (a la Monfils). Each has a slice out wide to the other’s backhand that they will likely employ in just such a tactic, one from the deuce and one from the ad, and the slight advantage goes to the lefty as the ad court tends to feature more game points. The key to this match may be the ability to stay patient. He is the best retriever on tour this side of Gael Monfils, but the trick, of course, is to just hit it past him—something the smallish Molcan may have trouble doing. Molcan has not been highly impressive just yet, but he must be considered one of the most improved players on tour, having risen from outside the top 250 at this time last year to his career high of #46 last month. De Minaur is by far the more experienced player on tour, but Molcan feels comfortable on the clay while it has historically been de Minaur’s least favorite surface (though he has improved this year).